bellalee

Recent Notes

  • essays and writings

    Jun 17, 2025

  • The Autistic's Guide to Self Discovery

    Jun 16, 2025

  • digital garden

    Jun 16, 2025

  • Gender roles in Korea

    Jun 15, 2025

  • National apologies and reparations

    Jun 15, 2025

See 304 more →

Home

❯

notes

❯

Overconfidence effect we systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict

Overconfidence effect - we systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict


Graph View

Backlinks

  • Cognitive biases
  • Forecast illusion - false prophets
  • Introspection illusion - nothing is more convincing than your own beliefs
  • Strategic misrepresentation - the more at stake, the more exaggerated your assertions become

Created with Quartz v4.5.0 © 2025

  • GitHub
  • Discord Community