Works well when unique attempts are involved. Don’t go by what people claim; go by past performance. When it comes to projects, consider the timeline, benefits, and costs of similar projects, and be wary of over-optimistic proposals (Overconfidence effect - we systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict).
Mega-projects are most vulnerable to this when
- Accountability is diffuse
- Many businesses are involved
- The end date is a few years down the road